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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/30 11:31

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Row crops are leading trade lower at midday with trend selling and stock 
market weakness.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with the Dow futures down 
250 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 4 higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $20.


   Corn trade is 5 cents lower with increased selling during the day session 
due to chart selling. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable and very tight with 
the weakness of the energy complex. Basis trade has stayed fairly sideways and 
the cooler weather will likely limit movement in the near term. March chart 
resistance is now at the $3.77 100-day moving average with longer term 
retracement support at $3.59 on further weakness going into the end of the 
month. Trade will likely remain weak going into the end of the day and the end 
of the month unless market shorts see a reason to take profits. The February 
Supply and Demand reports do not appear to be an item that will support trade. 


   Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents lower with meal $9 to $10 lower, and oil 20 to 
30 points. South American weather remains good with most of the concerns 
concentrated in northern Brazil. The next few weeks will be the key for podfill 
for the bulk of the crop. Bean oil has turned higher as meal is sliding this 
morning. The March soybean chart resistance is the 10-day moving average at 
$9.77, with support at the new low for the move put in this morning at $9.55. 
Major support is at $9.20, which is our contract low printed in early October. 


   Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower across the three exchanges this morning 
with pressure from the row crops discouraging further profit taking after the 
bounce yesterday. The firmer dollar will continue to limit export demand, but 
Russian restrictions take effect next week. The weakness of the euro has made 
France much more competitive than they have been recently as well. Russia 
reduced interest rates overnight, potentially conceding an even weaker ruble. 
Southern Plains weather will turn cooler, but no immediate threats are 
expected. The March Kansas City 10-day and lowest major moving average, at 
$5.58, serves as nearby chart resistance with limited support to note other 
than $5 at this point. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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