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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/04 11:20

   Wheat, Soy Higher at Midday

   Trade is mixed to lightly higher at midday with some upside momentum 
following the double digit Tuesday losses.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower, with the Dow down 100. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 32 points higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude down 0.05. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower 
with gold down $9.

   CORN

   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday in quiet trade with a 6 cent range so 
far. Weather is warming which is welcome and will be good for the crop. Basis 
has started to stabilze after dropping off sharply with the rally. Brazilian 
double crop corn size will continue to be debated with some sources indicating 
much higher acres than expected offsetting dryness. The weekly ethanol 
production report showed production down 0.43%, stocks up 2.64%, and gasoline 
demand was 2.01% higher. Japan bought 107,500 metric tons of new-crop corn. On 
the July chart, trade has set back below the 10-day and 200-day moving averages 
at $3.86 and the 20-day at 3.80, which are now resistance and the 50-day at 
$3.72 is support with trade just below the 20-day at midday.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 5 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade finding some light 
buying during the day session so far. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 15 to 
25 points higher. The market will start to focus on saturated areas where corn 
planting could get late and move to beans, otherwise for the start of May the 
planting progress is a fairly neutral market item at this juncture. Increased 
acres from corn could become more of a factor. Harvest progress should continue 
to pick up in South America with questions remaining about quantity and quality 
in Argentina. The momentum lower has stalled this morning, keeping more support 
in place on the chart. On the July soybean chart the 10-day moving average at 
$10.24 is support which we are testing this morning with resistance at the 
$10.57 high printed yesterday. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday across the three contracts with 
support from improved row crop trade. The Kansas wheat tour will continue 
through the end of the week, with a mixed of disease and strong yield potential 
found so far. World weather is fairly benign at this point, although the 
Candadian Prairie has been pretty dry this spring. The July Kansas City chart 
has resistance at the $4.74 20-day with support at the recent and contract lows 
printed in March at $4.52 3/4 which we are just above today.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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