DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/17 11:13
Grain Trade Mixed at Midday
Corn and wheat work higher at midday after pressure overnight, beans remain
negative but working higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 160. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 14 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude up $0 .20. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals
are lower with gold off $7.
Corn trade is firmer at midday with July up 12, September up 5 and December
up 4. Outside markets are friendly to start the week. Weather remains mostly
wet, and mostly warm in the near term, which should help to improve crop
progress. The USDA is expected to move towards ruling corn planting complete
for the year, and will let the trade debate lost acres for a while. Crop
conditions are expected to improve to the 65-66% good to excellent level this
week, and export inspections improved to 14.4 million bushels, although this is
still historically soft. Bull spreading is expected to remain firm this week
now that the fund rolls are complete. The December contract has support at
$5.25 and $5.12 for now.
Soybean trade is 5 to 12 lower at midday, bouncing a dime off of the initial
overnight lows. Meal is $1 to $3 lower, and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. The
November 200-day is at $12.92; we dropped below it this morning. The 20-day is
now up to $12.85; trade is holding above there at midday. Planting progress is
expected to move into the high 80% range today, and the forecast looks a little
more open in the near term for the most behind areas. NOPA crush out this
morning should be in the range of 117-119 mb, which will reflect the tightness
in old-crop stocks. The weekly export inspections were low at 2.76 million
Wheat trade is 2 to 6 higher across the three exchanges in quiet trade this
morning. There was limited wheat news over the weekend, with South Korea
looking for feed wheat but little else. July Chicago has support at $6.74, the
May low, then $6.65, the April low. Harvest should continue to expand this week
as hotter temps push the wheat towards maturity, but there could be some rain
delays in the central and eastern hard wheat belt. Spring wheat will continue
to debate acres for a while until Canadian planting is mostly complete as well.
Crop conditions will likely be steady on winter wheat with harvest progress
moving up from 5 percentage points last week, and spring wheat conditions
should show a little improvement towards 68-70% good to excellent. The weekly
export inspections were good at 21.6 million bushels.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser
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