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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/16 11:34

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are strong, wheat flat and corn lower at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 99. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude down $0.10. Livestock trade is flat to lower. Precious metals 
are flat with gold up $1. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 3 to 5 lower at midday in quiet trade, the daily range has 
only been 7 cents trading 5 lower to 2 higher. Outside markets are mostly 
neutral. Weekly EIA data had ethanol production jumping 4.8%, and stocks 
dropping 2.8%, and gasoline demand slipping 4.2%. There was some ethanol 
adjusting occurring with price slipping giving us the higher usage number 
apparently. But the lower gasoline demand and higher production has led to 
lower ethanol futures action. This is taking profit margin away for producers. 
Weather looks to provide showers in the west in the next five days while 
opportunities for fieldwork in the east next week. May chart support is at the 
$4.96 20-day moving average with resistance at $5.19, the high printed last 
week. Most expect trade to remain within our recent range this afternoon and 
tomorrow ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 12 to 17 higher at midday sitting just below the new highs 
printed overnight, meal is $3 to $4 higher and bean oil is 65 to 75 points 
higher. Commercial buying has been noted on our strength this week due to our 
tight old-crop cash supplies. Although the news-crop-supply scenario appears 
abundant, price rationing is needed on old crop, plus we still need to get 
supplies out of tight farmer hands. The July/November spread moved to new highs 
overnight to a $2.70 inverse. The slower planting progress should limit the new 
crop gains for now.  The NOPA March crush report exceeded expectations 
yesterday at 153.8 million bushels. On the May chart nearby support is at the 
$14.83 10-day, then the $14.63 20-day. Resistance is at the $15.25 overnight 
night. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with mixed spillover direction from 
the row crops. Light long profit taking surfacing after the 40 cent rally the 
past two sessions. The weather forecast remains troubling for the Southern 
Plains in the near term with better weather for the eastern areas expected. The 
Russia/Ukraine tensions remain front and center; this has been an item behind 
our strength this week. We are above all major moving averages so nearby May 
support is at the Kansas City $7.55 20-day and Chicago $6.87 20-day moving 
averages. The 20-day is the highest major moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.   

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


(CZ)

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