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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/30 10:56

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Soybeans are leading all grains higher at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 40 points. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 50 points higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude up $0.25. Livestock trade is mostly higher. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing off early 
weakness as we see support from profit taking vs. recent shorts. Chart momentum 
remains down, but a positive finish today would likely limit additional near 
term liquidation. Ethanol margins have stabilized with energy values ticking a 
bit higher. On the December chart corn slipped below the $3.97 area where we 
found both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. This is now chart 
resistance. The first real notable support now is the contract low at $3.62 
1/2. The weekly export sales were solid at 364,900 metric tons of old crop and 
443,300 of new crop.  


   Soybean trade is 9 to 14 cents higher at midday with commercial buying 
continuing to support the soybean trade. Meal is $8 to $9 higher, and oil is 15 
to 25 points higher. Tighter old crop supplies and good usage are supporting 
August as we near first delivery notice day. Weather remains non-threatening 
for established beans as we work into the main reproductive window this week. 
This is expected to have sellers around on rallies. On the November chart 
support now is the contract lows at $8.95. Resistance is the 100-day moving 
average at $9.55, which we have tested this morning. This is the lowest major 
moving average. The weekly export sales were strong at 416,700 metric tons of 
old crop, 899,200 of new crop, 71,500 of old crop meal, 80,300 of new crop 
meal, and 74,800 of oil. The USDA also announced 140,000 metric tons of new 
crop soybeans sold to unknown. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with 
some light short covering after the renewed long liquidation yesterday. The 
firmer row crop trade is adding support as well, and it will need to be 
sustained to promote a bigger batch of short covering. New contract lows were 
reached yesterday. Major world producers look to be off a little on production 
this year, but overall world supplies remain ample. On the September Kansas 
City wheat chart support is the fresh low at 4.91 with the 10-day moving 
average resistance at $5.12. The weekly export sales were strong at 699,200 
metric tons.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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