DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/24 11:17
All Grains Higher at Midday
Grains are higher across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the DOW futures up 210 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 25 points higher.
Energies are mostly higher with crude up 0.70. Livestock trade is sharply lower
for cattle and mixed for hogs. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $17.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade backing away from
early strength at midday while staying above the overnight lows with support
coming from more old crop buying with better demand surfacing. Ethanol margins
remain stable with energy values holding at the top of the range for the year
with the ethanol/unleaded spread narrowing again. Corn basis is expected to
remain steady to firmer this week. The weekly crop progress report showed
planting at 86% complete vs. 90 last year and 85% on average, a little below
expectations, with 60% emerged vs. 69% last year, 55% on average. Wet weather
will slow planting progess but warmer temperatures should help development this
week. On the July chart the 200-day and 20-day moving averages are support at
$3.86 resistance is at the $4.09 April high which is our 6-month high.
Soybean trade is flat to 7 cents higher with trade storming back from
overnight weakness with values 20 cents off the overnight lows. Meal is $4 to
$5 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The front months have gained vs
the back months, and the direction of that trade will be watched closely today
with front month demand staying sold. Soybean planting will be slowed again by
rains through midweek but warmer temperatures should benefit planted acres.
Planting progress was 56% complete same as last year, vs. 52% on average, with
22% emerged vs. 27% last year, and 21% on average. The USDA announced 140,000
metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown for new crop. On the chart, July trade
is back above the the 20-day at 10.52 at midday with the 50-day at $9.85 the
next round support if weakness resurfaces. The 10-day is resistance at 10.70.
Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with
row crops providing spillover support this morning. World weather remains good
with only isolated areas of concern, with warmer weather to help boost maturity
in the winter wheat belt. Heavy rains have caused some isolated damage in the
plains overnight and this morning. Feed wheat looks to remain competitively
priced. The US export picture remains bleak in the near term. The weekly crop
progress report showed winter wheat unchanged at 62% good to excellent, 8% poor
to very poor with 75% headed 9% ahead of average. Spring wheat was 95% planted,
18% ahead of normal, with 78% emerged, 27% ahead of normal with 76% good to
excellent, and 2% poor to very poor. The July KC chart is trading just below
the 10-day at $4.51, making support the low at $4.41.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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