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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/01 11:23

   Grain Trade Lower in Quiet Trade at Midday 

   Grain trade is slightly lower at midday in quiet trade.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 160. The 
interest rate products are lower. The U.S. dollar index is 11 higher. Energies 
are higher with crude up $1.60. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $5.00. 

   CORN:

   Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday in fairly quiet action. 
Outside markets remain bearish with the dollar holding near the top of the 
recent range. Rains look to slow harvest progress over the next three days 
before a more open pattern should resume. The weekly ethanol production report 
showed an 8,000 barrel per day decrease in production, and a 200,000 increase 
in stocks. On the grain stocks report, the USDA came in just above expectations 
at 1.236 billion bushels vs. an average guess of 1.185 billion bushels. On the 
December chart, resistance is at the 10-day moving average of $3.27, then $3.35 
3/4. Support is now $3.15 with another new contract low printed at $3.18 on the 
December. 

   TRADE:

   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with light selling pressure 
continuing after the poor finish Tuesday. Meal is $1 to $2 lower, and oil is 40 
to 50 points higher. On the November chart, support is $9 with the lowest major 
moving average, the 10-day, noted resistance at $9.31. Rains will likely slow 
harvest in the near term, while South American planting continues to progress. 
The stocks report came in below the average trade guess of 126 million bushels, 
at 92 million, but impact was limited because of the pending record crop. The 
final soybean crop revision was just below expectations at 3.35 billion bushels.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with 
continued pressure from the dollar and no help from the Quarterly Stocks report 
Tuesday. Wheat is oversold on the charts with limited chart support to mention 
other than the contract lows at $5.50 on the December Kansas City trade. First 
resistance on the KC December contract is at the 10-day moving average at 
$5.62. On the report, stocks came in just above the average trade guess of 1.88 
billion bushels, at 1.914 billion. The domestic 2014 all wheat production was 
2.035 billion bushels, just above the average guess of 2.033 billion..  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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