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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/29 11:30

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn and wheat make new lows at midday, soybeans flat.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 100 points. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 14 points higher. 
Energies are weaker with crude down 0.80. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
lower and hogs firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $.80. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with early support giving way to 
new lows for the move. Spillover pressure from wheat is a midday issue.  The 
crop tour wrapped up with a 170.2 BPA projected yield, versus the 175.1 USDA 
number, giving us 14.7 billion bushel production. This only provided light 
support last night, with a mostly red morning so far. Ethanol margins have 
improved with ethanol futures stable to firmer with the cheaper corn. Corn 
basis will remain on the defensive as harvest approaches. The weekly conditions 
and progress report is expected to show steady conditions and maturity 
remaining ahead of normal. The weekly export inspections were good at 1.422 
million metric tons. On the chart, resistance is in the area in between the 
10-day and 20-day moving averages at $3.34 - 3.36, then the $3.44 1/4 August 
high. The fresh contract low of $3.20 3/4 is December support.  


   Soybean futures are flat to 3 cents lower oat midday; it has been a mixed 
session. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 35 to 45 points lower. Supoprt has 
come from another daily sales annoumcement with 393,000 metric tons of soybeans 
sold for new crop. The crop tour pegged soybean yields at 49.3 BPA and 
production at 4.093 billion bushels versus the USDA 48.9 BPA and 4.06 billion 
bushel production number. Good to excellent ratings should remain steady if not 
go up a percentage point next week with neutral weather going into midweek. 
Maturity should remain ahead of normal pace. The weekly export inspections 
remain strong at 921,137 metric tons, with the inspection pace now ahead of 
last year. On the November soybean chart support is at the $9.60 low from 
Friday with the 200-day at $9.64 above that; we are holding that area this 
morning.  Chart resistance is at the 20-day at $9.87. 


   Wheat trade has seen continued selling after the collapse on Friday, with 
trade 5-15 cents lower at midday led by Chicago again. Spring wheat will 
continue to see harvest pressure with ample supply weighing on all classes. 
Canadian harvest will be hitting full stride soon, and Russia looks to continue 
an aggressive export pace with ongoing issues in Egypt causing issues. The 
weekly export inspections were down a bit to 511,965, with action solidly ahead 
of last years pace. On the Kansas City December chart support is now the $4.00 
area, with trade well below the nearby moving averages. Chicago has printed a 
new contract low for the fourth day in a row, which Kansas City  starting to 
reestablish its typical premium over the contract. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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